据中国地震台网测定，北京时间2017年8月8日21时19分，四川阿坝州九寨沟县发生7.0级地震。截至到9日下午3时，地震已造成19人死亡，217人受伤。
这一刻，惟愿——
为什么地震的危害如此之大？地震是否可以提前预测？遭遇地震时，“生命三角”真的可以保命吗？如何在地震时做出最有效的逃生自救？Yee君搜集了国内外多方资料，为你详尽解答以上问题。
Yee君真心希望你能认真地阅读今天的内容，当然，更希望这些知识永远存在于你的脑海中，不被使用到。
九寨沟震情
A 7.0-magnitude earthquake jolted Jiuzhaigou County in southwest China's Sichuan Province at 9:19 p.m. Tuesday (Beijing Time), and the epicenter was monitored at 33.2 degrees north latitude and 103.82 degrees east longitude. The quake struck at a depth of 20 km, according to the China Earthquake Networks Center (CENC). Up to now, the death toll has risen to 19.
据中国地震台网中心测定，北京时间8月8日晚9:19，四川省九寨沟县发生里氏7.0级地震，震中位于北纬33.2°，东经103.82°，震源深度20公里。截至目前，地震已造成19人死亡。
▲救援官兵正在搜救（图片来源：新华网）
At least five of the dead were visitors to the popular tourist destination of Jiuzhaigou in the epicenter of Zhangzha town, Jiuzhaigou County.
位于震中九寨沟县漳扎镇的九寨沟景区是颇受欢迎的旅游目的地，至少5名来此的游客在地震中遇难。
Jiuzhaigou, or Jiuzhai Valley, is a national park known for spectacular waterfalls and karst formations. More than 34,000 people visited the tourist attraction on Tuesday.
九寨沟是以壮观瀑布和喀斯特地貌闻名的国家级公园，地震当天有超过3.4万名游客到访该旅游胜地。
So far, 31,500 tourists have been relocated to safe places.
截至目前，已有3.15万游客被转移安置到安全地带。
The local government has organized tourist coaches and private-owned vehicles to rush to the affected areas to help transport the stranded tourists.
当地政府安排旅游大巴和私家车前往受灾地区转运滞留游客。
Power, communication and water supply in the county seat have basically recovered.
县城的电力、通信和供水已基本恢复。
So far, Jiuzhaigou County has dispatched more than 90 emergency vehicles and 1,200 personnel to participate in the rescue work.
截至目前，九寨沟县已调配90余部车辆和1200余人参与救灾工作。
▲救援车辆排队等候进入九寨沟灾区（图片来源：新华网）
The county also sent consultants to hotels, rural inns and streets to offer possible counseling service for tourists.
该县还派出咨询人员进入酒店、农家乐，或走上街头为有需要的游客提供咨询服务。
The quake was felt in the provincial capital Chengdu about 300 km south of the epicenter, and other regions in the neighboring provinces of Gansu and Shaanxi.
位于震中南部约300公里的省会成都以及甘肃、陕西等相邻省份的其他地区均有震感。
Sichuan is a quake-prone region. In May 2008, an 8.0-magnitude earthquake struck Wenchuan and killed more than 80,000 people. In 2013, a 7.0-magnitude quake hit Lushan, killing 196.
四川是地震多发区。2008年5月，8.0级地震袭击汶川，夺去8万人生命；2013年，庐山发生里氏7.0级地震，造成196人死亡。
地震无法精准预测，但能提前数十秒预警
Earthquake forecasting and prediction is an active topic of geological research. Geoscientists are able to identify particular areas of risk and, if there is sufficient information, to make probabilistic forecasts about the likelihood of earthquakes happening in a specified area over a specified period. These forecasts are based on data gathered through global seismic monitoring networks, high-density local monitoring in known risk areas, and geological field work, as well as from historical records. Forecasts are improved as our theoretical understanding of earthquakes grows. Long-term forecasts (years to decades) are currently much more reliable than short to medium-term forecasts (days to months).
地震预报与预测是地质学研究的一项活跃话题。地质学家可以确定存在地震风险的特定区域，如果信息充足，还可以对特定时期特定区域发生地震的可能性做出概率预报。这些预报基于从全球地震监测网、已知风险地区的高密度地方监测体系、地质测量工作和历史记录等搜集而来的数据。随着我们对地震的理论认识不断增强，地震预报也有所提高。目前，几年到几十年的长期预报比数日到数月的短期预报要靠谱得多。
Most geoscientists do not believe that there is a realistic prospect of accurate prediction in the foreseeable future, and the principal focus of research is on improving the forecasting of earthquakes.
大多数地质学家并不看好精准预测地震在可预见未来内的现实前景，研究的重点是如何改进地震预报。
虽然地震无法预测，但现有技术已经实现了对地震的预警（early warning）。就在本次九寨沟地震波到达汶川前40多秒，汶川县电视台中断正常电视节目播放画面，弹出地震预警信息，让居民紧急避难。
地震预警中心推出的地震预警app也可以在地震波到达前发出有效预警，为人们争取数十秒的逃生时间。微博网友@Wennie分享了使用效果，获得了大量关注和转发↓
When an earthquake hits, it has the potential to cause thousands of deaths. With that in mind, public and private organizations are racing to get earthquake early-warning systems into the hands of residents, businesses and utility companies.
地震来袭时可能会导致成千上万人丧生。考虑到这一点，公共和民间组织争相在居民和企事业单位中推广地震预警系统。
The technology already exists and could give residents up to dozens of seconds of warning time, depending on how far they are from the epicenter of the quake. That may not sound like much time, but it’s enough for residents to take shelter, doctors to stop surgeries, trains to come to a halt, pipelines to be shut down, first responders to open garage doors for their vehicles and much more.
这项技术已经出现，最多可以提前数十秒向居民发出预警，预警时间取决于居民和震中之间的距离。虽然听上去并没有多少时间，但足以让居民采取庇护措施、医生停止手术、列车停止前进、管线停止运作、现场急救人员为车辆打开车库大门等等。
面对无法预测且毁灭性强的地震，我们应该学会如何自救，减少最低损失。提到自救，人们可能很自然地想到风靡网络的“生命三角”救生法，那么这种方法到底可行吗？
“生命三角”救生法不可信
In recent years, an article has been circulating which describes an alternative to the long-established "Drop, Cover, and Hold On" advice – an act recommended by the American Red Cross and other well-known disaster relief organizations. The so-called "triangle of life" and some of the other actions recommended in the article are potentially life threatening, and the credibility of the source of these recommendations has been broadly questioned.
近几年，一篇宣称替代美国红十字会等知名救灾组织长期奉行的“伏地、遮挡、手抓牢”救生法的文章蹿红网络。文章中推荐的所谓“生命三角”救生法和其他救生措施存在着潜在的生命危险，并且这些救生方法的来源可信度也遭到公众质疑。
The "triangle of life" advice (always get next to a table rather than underneath it) is based on several wrong assumptions:
“生命三角”救生法（灾害发生时要躲在桌边，而不是躲在桌下）是基于几种错误的设想而提出的：
buildings always collapse in earthquakes (wrong- especially in developed nations, and flat "pancake" collapse is rare anywhere);
建筑物在地震中常常会倒塌（错误——平坠倒塌其实是很少见的，特别是在发达国家）；
when buildings collapse they always crush all furniture inside (wrong- people DO survive under furniture or other shelters);
当楼房倒塌时往往会压碎所有室内家具（错误——人们在家具或其他遮挡物下确实能得以幸存）；
people can always anticipate how their building might collapse and anticipate the location of survivable void spaces (wrong- the direction of shaking and unique structural aspects of the building make this nearly impossible) ;
人们总是能预料到自己家的楼房是如何倒塌的，并且能料到求生的空隙空间在哪里（错误——楼房摇摆的方向和楼房建筑结构等方面的特殊性决定了这几乎是不可能的）；
during strong shaking people can move to a desired location (wrong- strong shaking can make moving very difficult and dangerous).
在强震中，人们可以转移到想要去的地方（错误——在强震中行动是非常困难且危险的一件事）。
救生三字诀
既然“生命三角”法不可靠，那么我们应该采取哪些正确的救生方式呢？
那就是上文中提到的世界知名救灾组织长期推行的“伏地、遮挡、手抓牢（Drop, Cover, and Hold On）”救生法↓
Tip 1: Drop wherever you are. Don’t try to run three doors down to find a desk.
步骤一：就地伏倒。千万不要在房间四处奔跑寻找桌子。
If you’re sitting at a desk, great: Get underneath it.
假如你正好坐在桌子旁，那正好，尽快钻到桌子下面。
▲How to drop, cover and hold on with a desk nearby.
当附近有桌子时，应如何伏地、遮挡、手抓牢
But if you’re far away from a table, don’t try to run to the office three doors down to get to one.
但如果你离桌子较远，请不要试图跑很远去寻找桌子。
“Trying to get somewhere can be dangerous itself. You really want to drop where you are,” said Mark Benthien, spokesman for the Southern California Earthquake Center.
“试图跑去某个地方本身就是一种很危险的做法。地震时你最想做的便是就地伏倒。”美国南加州地震中心马克·本森如此说道。
▲How to drop, cover and hold on with no desk nearby.
当附近没有桌子时，应如何伏地、遮挡、手抓牢
Why? Because you expose yourself to danger by running in an earthquake.
为什么呢？因为在地震中奔跑会置自己于危险之中。
Often, a more worrisome hazard is objects falling or flying around the room — like bookcases, TVs, microwaves — that can strike your head and kill you.
一般情况下，更危险的是横空而来的物体，比如书架、电视机和微波炉等，它们有可能会击中你，甚至夺走你的生命。
“Getting down and protecting your head: You’re a much smaller thing than if you’re running through the room and putting yourself through the trajectories of those things,” Jones said.
“相比在房间内四处奔跑，穿梭在那些四处横飞的家具中，伏倒在地并护住头部会使你整个人的体积变得更小。”
Tip 2: Cover yourself, even if you can’t get to a desk.
步骤二：即使无法钻到桌子下，也要尽力将自己遮挡起来。
Cover your head or neck with an arm, especially if you can’t get to a desk, or are crawling to the table.
用胳膊遮挡头部或颈部，尤其是在无法找到桌子或爬到桌下的情况下。
If a table is too far away, get to a wall that doesn’t face a window that could shatter. “If you’ve got a wall, you’re less of a target,” Benthien said.
如果桌子太远，那就去找一面墙，这面墙不能面向窗户，因为玻璃可能会碎得到处都是。“如果你已经成功找到墙壁，那你受到伤害的可能性就缩小了。”本森说道。
Tip 3: Hold on to something, like a table leg.
步骤三：手抓牢，比如抓住桌子腿。
“The ‘hold on’ is key. You may be underneath a table, but if you’re not holding on to it, it may move away from you, leaving you exposed,” Benthien said.
“这三步之中，‘手抓牢’是关键。可能你只是躲在桌子下面，而并没有抓住它，也许桌子会大幅移动，使你重新暴露在外。”本森强调。
地震自救注意事项
Why not just run from a building during an earthquake? 为什么不能在地震中跑出建筑物？
Because, says seismologist Lucy Jones, “the first thing to fail in a building is the outside, so you have balconies falling off and facades falling off. You’re putting yourself into a more dangerous situation by moving to the outside of a building.”
地震学家露西·琼斯解释道：“因为建筑物最先剥落的部分便是外壳，所以阳台和墙体立面都会坍塌。如果那时候跑出建筑物，反而会更危险。”
Even if the outside edges of a building collapse, the building can largely remain standing.
即使外部边缘倒塌，建筑物在很大程度上依然能够坚挺。
This happened during the Paso Robles earthquake of 2003: Two women working at a clothing store were crushed to death by falling bricks and plaster as they ran out of an old, quake-vulnerable brick building.
下面这件事发生在2003年的帕索罗布尔斯地震期间。地震发生时，有两名女员工正在服装店上班，在向外逃跑的过程中被掉落的砖块和水泥砸中身亡，而她们所在的店铺正是老旧而经不起丝毫震荡的砖砌建筑。
Had they stayed inside, it was determined, they probably would have survived.
尽管事情已成定局，但如果她们留在店内，或许还有生还的机会。
But what if a building is collapsing? 那么如果建筑倒塌了该怎么办？
There’s not much evidence that trying to flee is a better idea, Jones said. When a collapse happens, it can happen so quickly there’s only time to drop and cover.
琼斯提到，现在还没有充足的证据可以证明逃跑更为明智。坍塌发生时，有可能只够人们做到伏地和遮挡的时间。
Even when buildings do collapse, search-and-rescue teams combing through the wreckage have found survivors who were found underneath spaces like tables.
即使建筑物真的坍塌，搜救队在废墟中搜寻到了幸存者，而他们正是躲在了桌子下面。
“They found people under desks that dropped and covered in place, and they could come and dig them out. There’s a lot of evidence that it can save you,” Jones said.
“他们发现这些幸存者躲在桌子底下，并做到了伏地和遮挡，搜救人员到达之后就将他们挖救出来。现在已经有很多证据可以证明这样做确实可以救人一命。”琼斯这样说到。
What do I do if I’m not inside a building or near a desk? 如果不在室内或桌子旁该怎么办？
Here are some tips for that.
建议如下。
In your bed
床上
Lie face down to protect vital organs. Cover your head and neck with a pillow, keeping your arms as close to your head as possible; hold on to your neck and head until shaking stops.
脸朝下俯卧在床上，保护重要器官。用枕头护住头部和颈部，尽可能使胳膊靠近头部。抱住颈部和头部，直到地震结束。
In a store
商场
Get next to a shopping cart, beneath clothing racks, or within the first level of the racks. Those in wheelchairs should lock their wheels, bend over and cover their heads.
躲避在购物车旁，服装货架下面或者货架的第一层。坐在轮椅上的人士要锁定车轮，并弯腰护住头部。
Outdoors
室外
Move away from power lines, buildings, cars and other hazards. Dropping down and covering yourself still protects from objects thrown sideways.
远离电线、建筑物、汽车和其他危险物。仍然可以通过俯身下趴并用手护住身体来保护自己，以减轻周围飞落物造成的伤害。
At the beach or beneath a dam
沙滩和水坝
At the beach? After the shaking stops, head to high ground to beat a tsunami. Beneath a dam? Get to high ground or follow official instructions.
如果在沙滩遇到地震，地震停止后，要迅速跑到高地躲避海啸；如果位于水坝下方，也要立刻跑到高地，或遵循专业指示避险。
Driving
驾车途中
Pull to the side of the road, stop and set the parking brake. Avoid overpasses, bridges, power lines, signs and other hazards. Stay stopped until shaking stops, then avoid fallen debris and cracked or shifted pavement.
将车靠向路边，熄火，拉起手刹。要远离立交桥、桥梁、电线、指示牌等危险物。保持熄火状态直到地震停止，再次行驶时要避开掉落的碎片，不要走带有裂缝和扭曲的道路。
In a theater or stadium
剧院和体育场
Drop to the ground in front of your seat, or lean over as much as you can. Then cover your head with your arms, and hold on to your neck with both hands until shaking stops. Walk out slowly, watching for anything that can fall during aftershocks.
在座位前俯身趴下，或尽可能将身体下弯。用胳膊护住头部，双手放在颈部。地震停止向外撤离时，缓慢前行，注意避免被余震中掉落的物体砸伤。
最后Yee君要再次强调，地震中最有效的救生法是“伏地、遮挡、手抓牢（Drop, Cover, and Hold On）”！如果你觉得有用，希望你转发出去告诉更多的人。
英文来源：Global Times, Los Angeles Times, Rappler, The Geographical Society, Fox News等
编译：Yee君
